Analyzing Hunch-based Decision-making

William Lynch, Oberlin CollegeFollow

Location

King Building 337

Document Type

Presentation

Start Date

4-29-2016 4:00 PM

End Date

4-29-2016 5:15 PM

Abstract

Often, individuals make decisions simply due to “hunches” and seemingly independent of previous information. However, it is possible that these hunches are more informed by previous information than expected. We hypothesized that in instances where prior information strongly predicted subsequent choices, the person would be more likely to form a hunch. We used a computerized task in which individuals predicted which marble would be drawn from a bag and determined whether they would “wager” on their choice to indicate a hunch. We evaluated both basic predictors and more complex decision-making strategies and evaluated whether they predicted subsequent wagers.

Notes

Session III, Panel 15 - Decisions, Decisions: Investigations of Hunches, Attitudes, and Responses
Moderator: Afia Ofori-Mensa, Visiting Assistant Professor of Comparative American Studies and Africana Studies

Major

Neuroscience

Advisor(s)

Leslie Kwakye, Neuroscience

Project Mentor(s)

Michael Loose, Neuroscience

April 2016

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Apr 29th, 4:00 PM Apr 29th, 5:15 PM

Analyzing Hunch-based Decision-making

King Building 337

Often, individuals make decisions simply due to “hunches” and seemingly independent of previous information. However, it is possible that these hunches are more informed by previous information than expected. We hypothesized that in instances where prior information strongly predicted subsequent choices, the person would be more likely to form a hunch. We used a computerized task in which individuals predicted which marble would be drawn from a bag and determined whether they would “wager” on their choice to indicate a hunch. We evaluated both basic predictors and more complex decision-making strategies and evaluated whether they predicted subsequent wagers.