Anomalous Voting Patterns in the Rural South
Location
PANEL: Politics Honors Pt. II
Wilder 101
Moderator: David Forrest
Document Type
Presentation - Open Access
Start Date
5-1-2026 4:30 PM
End Date
5-1-2026 5:30 PM
Abstract
This project analyzes community-level voting patterns in the rural American South to identify and better understand communities that defy longstanding patterns of race-based voter polarization. Specifically, this project uses advanced statistical methods as well as an in-depth ethnography in order to understand the relationships between ideology and identity in predominately Black communities that vote more Republican than other communities with similar Black populations. I argue that these Republican-leaning Black communities are the result of low-propensity voters shifting towards the GOP and defying traditional political socialization patterns in Black communities. The implications of this study hint at the future of race-based voter polarization in the American South as well as in the nation as a whole.
Keywords:
Politics, Voting, Polarization
Recommended Citation
Herscovici, Michael, "Anomalous Voting Patterns in the Rural South" (2026). Research Symposium. 19.
https://digitalcommons.oberlin.edu/researchsymp/2026/presentations/19
Major
Politics
Award
Jere Bruner Research Grant
Jerome Davis Research Fund
Project Mentor(s)
David Forrest, Politics
2026
Anomalous Voting Patterns in the Rural South
PANEL: Politics Honors Pt. II
Wilder 101
Moderator: David Forrest
This project analyzes community-level voting patterns in the rural American South to identify and better understand communities that defy longstanding patterns of race-based voter polarization. Specifically, this project uses advanced statistical methods as well as an in-depth ethnography in order to understand the relationships between ideology and identity in predominately Black communities that vote more Republican than other communities with similar Black populations. I argue that these Republican-leaning Black communities are the result of low-propensity voters shifting towards the GOP and defying traditional political socialization patterns in Black communities. The implications of this study hint at the future of race-based voter polarization in the American South as well as in the nation as a whole.
