Anomalous Voting Patterns in the Rural South

Author ORCID Identifier

0009-0001-7716-2046

Degree Year

2026

Document Type

Thesis - Oberlin Community Only

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Politics

Advisor(s)

David Forrest

Committee Member(s)

David Forrest
Adam Howat
Charles Peterson

Keywords

Voting, Rural, South, African-American, Polarization

Abstract

This project analyzes community-level voting patterns in the rural American South to identify and better understand communities that defy longstanding patterns of race-based voter polarization. Specifically, this project uses advanced statistical methods as well as an in-depth ethnography in order to understand the relationships between ideology and identity in predominantly Black communities that vote more Republican than other communities with similar Black populations. I argue that these Republican-leaning Black communities are the result of low-propensity voters shifting towards the GOP and defying traditional political socialization patterns in Black communities. The implications of this study hint at the future of race-based voter polarization in the American South as well as in the nation as a whole.

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