Bachelor of Arts
Speculation, Exchange rates, German mark, United States dollar, Japanese yen, British pound
Foreign currency speculation has always been a well publicized topic that has captured the attention of people who have not formally studied economics. It is also a topic that has captured the attention of researchers in International Finance because speculative bubbles have often been considered as a possible explanation for the excess volatility of exchange rates. An examination of past studies reveals that different methods have been used by researchers to test for the existence of speculative bubbles in major currencies over the period from 1970-1984. In this paper, I will apply three methods which have been used in the past to reach conclusions about the existence of speculative bubbles in the U.S Dollar/German Mark and the U.S Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate over the period from 1982-1992 and the U.S Dollar/British Pound exchange rate from 1987-1992. One objective of this paper is to update previous studies by expanding their scope into the most recent decade. The other objective is to use several testing methods for each currency in order to gain an insight into both the robustness of the conclusions and the dependency of the conclusions on a particular method of testing.
Weerapana, Akila, "Testing for Speculative Bubbles in Foreign Exchange Markets" (1993). Honors Papers. 561.