Document Type

Working Paper

Publication Date

7-2026

Keywords

Flood risk; Risk disclosure; Salience; Attention; Willingness to pay; Stated preferences

Abstract

Flood risk disclosure is expanding rapidly in real estate markets, but if disclosures move demand by commanding attention rather than by conveying information, theirwelfare effects are ambiguous. We examine this tension in a discrete choice experiment where 1,498 respondents make hypothetical choices among real Gulf Coast properties under a control condition and four disclosure formats varying in informational content and presentation. Absent disclosure, insurance costs barely influence choices; by contrast, when respondents are shown precise flood insurance estimates, they are willing to pay $3.34 in annualized housing costs to avoid each annual premium dollar. Using a separate beliefs elicitation, we estimate each format’s technical information content and construct a Bayesian benchmark for how much choices should respond. Observed responses exceed this benchmark by a factor of four to six; informational content accounts for at most 30 percent of the response to any format.

Comments

JEL Classification Numbers: D83, D91, Q54, R31, G22

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